| ALEXADRU O. PAVELESCU1, VALENTIN T. ACASANDREI1, BOGDAN I. VAMANU1, PETRE MIN2, DAN VAMANU1, MĂRGĂRIT PAVELESCU3
Abstract. The detonation of a nuclear device in proximity to the Romanian border constitutes a low-probability, extreme-consequence scenario that necessitates rigorous scientific quantification. Driven by the protracted conflict in Ukraine and the shifting nuclear signaling posture within the Black Sea basin, this study evaluates the hypothetical deployment of a state-origin tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) targeting Snake Island. Utilizing high-resolution modelling, we analyze the multi-vector impact: the initial prompt physical effects (blast, thermal, and ionizing radiation) and the subsequent atmospheric transport of the radioactive plume. The assessment quantifies cross-border radionuclide deposition and projected population doses within Romania under diverse, representative meteorological regimes. Our findings emphasize the critical sensitivity of fallout trajectories to synoptic-scale wind patterns and localized precipitation, which can drastically alter the radiological footprint. By contextualizing scientific uncertainties and modelling limitations, this research provides an evidence-based framework for regional preparedness, offering strategic insights for the protection of near-field populations and the resilience of critical infrastructure in a post-detonation environment. Keywords: tactical nuclear weapon (TNW), Snake Island; Black Sea, atmospheric dispersion, nuclear fallout, radiological protection. DOI 10.56082/annalsarsciphyschem.2026.1.83 1Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Horia Hulubei” National Institute for R&D in Physics and Nuclear Engineering (IFIN-HH), Reactorului Str. No. 30, PO-Box: MG-75126, Bucharest-Măgurele, Romania (e-mails: alexandru.pavelescu@nipne.ro, tacasan@nipne.ro, bvamanu@nipne.ro, dvamanu@nipne.ro) 2National Commission for Nuclear Activities Control, Lt. Zalic Street., No. 4, District 6, Bucharest, Romania (e-mail: pretre.min@cncan.ro) 3Chairman of Physics Section, Academy of Romanian Scientists (ARS), Ilfov Street, No. 3, Sector 1, Bucharest, Romania (e-mail: mpavelescu2002@yahoo.com) |
PUBLISHED in Annals Academy of Romanian Scientists
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