upload_tlbv2mbkb6owuu27j7ijdyd5dt.pdf

12

CHRONIC DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS IN ROMANIA AND IT'S

NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON THE

COUNTRY'S DEFENSE CAPACITY

Lieutenant-general (ret) Associated Professor Constantin MINCU, Ph.D



(Academy of Romanian Scientists, 3 Ilfov Street, 050044, Bucharest,

Romania, email: secretariat@aosr.ro)

Abstract

:

This

issue

has

been

debated

in

recent

years.

Numerous

Romanian and foreign specialists have analyzed and published articles and studies

in

which

they

demonstrated

that

wars,

unfortunately,

are

not

fought

only

with

sophisticated

weapons

systems

and

not

only

with

artificial

intelligence

(AI),

but

also with numerous soldiers who operate on the battlefield and give their lives by

the

tens

of

thousands,

as

demonstrated

by

the

war

in

Ukraine,

launched

in

February 2022 by the "peace-loving" Russian Federation.

I

decided

to

return

to

this

topic

after

becoming

aware

of

the

article

published by the former Chief of the General Staff (SMAp), General Ștefan Dănilă,

on the

adevărul.ro website on august 21, 2026

1

.

After four and a half years of fierce war in Ukraine, launched on February

2, 2022, by President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, by this date (august 24, 2026)

the warring parties have lost, according to Ukraine and independent sources, such

as the

International Institute for Strategic Studies

2

: Russia – approximately 1.5

million fighters, killed and wounded, and Ukraine 650,000-700,000 people, in the

effort of this aggressed state to cope with the Russian war machine.

This

means

for the potential

conflicts

that

threaten

the

entire

world

and

especially Europe, that the demomilitary factor is of vital importance in ensuring

the defense and security of any state, including Romania.

Unfortunately,

in

the

absence

of

any

public

policies

in

the

field

of

controlling

demographic

decline,

the

Romanian

state

is

doing

nothing;

on

the

contrary,

the

latest

so-called

austerity

measures

are

hitting

families

with

young

children and families who want children hard.

Keywords

:

demomilitary

factor,

country's

defense,

Russia,

Ukraine,

Romania.



Entitled

member

of

the

Academy

of

Romanian

Scientists,

member

of

the

Honorary

Council of the Academy of Romanian Scientists, Vice President of the Military Sciences

Section, phone: 0722303015, email: mincu_constantin@yahoo.com.

1

Dănilă

Ștefan,

„Străinii

nu pot

lupta

în

locul

nostru.

Cum

afectează

criza demografică

apărarea

României”,

available

at

https://adevarul.ro/securitate

-

si

-

aparare/strainii

-

pot

-

suplini

-

forta

-

de

-

munca

-

dar

-

nu

-

si

-

2551185.html,

accessed on

august 31,

2026.

2

Borcea

Ștefan,

„Rusia

a

pierdut

aproximativ

1.475.270

de

soldaţi

în

Ucraina

de

la

începutul invaziei sale pe scară largă din 24 februarie 2022, a raportat Statul Major General

al Forţelor Armate ale Ucrainei”,

available at

https://adevarul.ro/stiri

-

externe/europa/cifre

-

oficiale

-

rusia

-

a

-

pierdut

-

aproape

-

15

-

2551484.html,

accessed on

august 31,

2026.

Lieutenant-general (ret) Associated Professor Constantin MINCU, Ph.D

13

DOI

10

.

56082/annalsarscimilit.2026.3.12

1. Introduction

In

these

complicated

conditions

marked

by

uncertainties

and

turbulences at a global level (the war in Ukraine, the major conflict between

Iran and the US-Israel

, the militaristic agitation of China and Russia in the

Pacific and the threats of the communist regime in Beijing against Taiwan,

to

which

are

added

the

trade

wars

and

other

threats

of

the

Trump

Administration

against

sovereign

states

(Canada,

Denmark,

Venezuela,

Panama,

Mexico,

the

European

Union,

etc.),

they

put

unprecedented

pressure on the

World Order

, established after the Second World War.

The gravity of the situation is also demonstrated by the fact that the

UN

has

turned

into

a

"

TOWER

OF

BABEL

",

as

some

analysts

have

pointed out, without any power in resolving complicated international files.

In fact, three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council do

whatever they want on the world stage, without respecting the

UN Charter

and the international regulations assumed through multilateral treaties and

agreements.

Only if we consider Russia's actions from 2008 to today (august 26,

2026),

do

we

understand

that

the

atavistic

aggressiveness

of

the

Russian

Empire has no cure

3

,

4

.

I must emphasize that hundreds of analyses, articles and books that

analyze, with arguments, Russia's permanent aggression against everyone. I

note,

again,

the

book

"Russia's

War

with

the

World

and

How

It

Affects

Us"

5

.

2. Importance of the demomilitary factor in war

The

materials

available

from

various

sources

demonstrate

the

political-military thinking and actions of the aggressive team

in

Moscow,

the serious miscalculations of the Kremlin leader, as well as the cynicism

and

cruelty

of

him

and

his

troops.

More

recently,

Western

intelligence

services

have

obtained

information

from

various

sources

that

Putin

is

planning

an

attack

on

some

NATO

countries

and

military

provocations

coming from Belarus and the Kaliningrad Enclave.

More

recently,

there

is

credible

information

about

a

new

massive

mobilization, with the aim of expanding and prolonging the war

6

.

3

Mincu Constantin, „Haos Geopolitic Global

”

,

Revista de Științe Militare

, no

. 4/2019.

4

Mincu Constantin, „Agresivitatea politico

-

militară globală a Federației Ruse

”

,

Revista de

Ș

tiințe Militare

, no

. 2/2019.

5

Keir Giles,

Războiul Rusiei cu lumea și cum ne afectează

, Niculescu

Publishing House

,

2023.

6

Ghiurca

Narcis,

„Fostul

emisar

special

al

SUA

pentru

Ucraina

îl

compară

pe

Putin

cu

Hitler: „Îngrijorarea mea: vom ajunge la un al Treilea Război Mondial”,

available at

https:

-

CHRONIC DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS IN ROMANIA AND

IT'S NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON THE

COUNTRY'S DEFENSE CAPACITY

14

Although the Russians are facing heavy losses of life and equipment,

they have not shown any sign so far (august 26, 2026) that they want peace,

with recent statements by some Russian leaders confirming that they want

all of Ukraine and more.

7

.

Even

worse

is

that

in

the

recent

analysis

of

BLOOMBERG

it

is

estimated that "Russia is considering an escalation of the war in Ukraine.

The possibility of resorting to tactical nuclear weapons is being discussed as

an extreme solution"

8

.

From the data available so far (

august 26,

2026), it clearly and with

arguments results the importance of human resources for a long

-

term war,

although some analysts, including Romanians, support the wrong theory of

small armies, but equipped with modern combat means, some assisted by

AI.

I tend to believe that there should be a carefully calculated balance

taking

into

account

the

risks

and

threats

in

the

European

space

and

Romania's direct proximity to the war zone.

From the analysis, up to date, of the losses of Russia and Ukraine in

four and a half years of war, it clearly results that Russia has lost 20 times

more soldiers than the peacetime strength of the Romanian Army (75,000

soldiers), and Ukraine 10 times more.

Doesn't this reality give political and military decision

-

makers in

Romania pause for thought?! Apparently NOT!

Analyzing the demomilitary factor in more depth

in war (many

sources

of

information

are

available

regarding

the

direct

link,

difficult

to

dispute,

between

the

size

and

structure

of

a

country's

population

and

the

ability to size its armed forces in peace, in crisis situations and in war).

After the ending of the Cold War

,

With the collapse of the USSR

(December

1991),

many

military

specialists

and

political

decision

-

makers

from

the

relevant

global

powers

argued

for

the

need

to

de

-

massify

their

armies,

mainly

based

on

the

development

of

modern

technologies

and

weapons (including drones and AI applications), which can compensate for

the

sometimes

dramatic

decrease

in

peacetime

forces

(including

in

Romania,

from

340,000

soldiers

in

1989

to

75,000

soldiers

in

2001),

but

also

of

those

in

the

mobilization

reserves

(in

Romania,

the

mobilization

reserve almost melted away, being under 50,000 elderly and physically unfit

reservists for a war effort).

//

adevarul.ro/stiri

-

externe/rusia/fostul

-

emisar

-

special

-

al

-

sua

-

pentru

-

ucraina

-

il

-

2552038.html,

accessed on

august 31,

2026.

7

Idem.

8

Stancu Cristina, „Bloomberg: Rusia ia in calcul o escaladare a războiului din Ucraina. Se

discută

despre

posibilitatea

recurgerii

la

arme

nucleare

tactice,

ca

soluție

extremă”,

available

at

https://adevarul.ro/stiri

-

externe/rusia/bloomberg

-

rusia

-

ia

-

in

-

calcul

-

o

-

escaladare

-

a

-

2552332.html,

accessed on

september 1,

.2026.

Lieutenant-general (ret) Associated Professor Constantin MINCU, Ph.D

15

Several

sources

estimate that NATO

countries

now have between

0.3 and 0.8% of the population in their armies at peace. In the case of non

-

NATO states, the percentage at peace is higher, between 1.1 and 1.5%.

The war in Ukraine

blatantly contradicts the estimates made until

2022,

with

Russia

now

having

approximately

3

million

soldiers,

and

Ukraine approximately 1.5 million.

In this context,

let's return to the situation in Romania. Our state has

a serious and persistent demographic crisis, ignored by the authorities.

The demographic decline in our country

is

-

2% per year, so now,

according to the 2022 census data

9

a population of 19,053,815 inhabitants

was

recorded,

serenely

losing

1.1

million

compared

to

the

2011

census.

Specialists

in

the

field

state

that

in

2040

Romania

will

have,

in

the

optimistic

version,

only

16

million

inhabitants,

and

in

the

pessimistic

version (much more possible) only 14 million, compared to 22.8 million in

1989. Of the mentioned figure of 19.05 million, more than 6 million have

left abroad (as also estimated by General Ștefan Dănilă, in the material cited

in the footnote at no. 1).

Romanian officials

say, unbelievably, that there are only 4 million

Romanians abroad.

This

serious

situation

generates

major

problems

for

the

defense

forces and national security and affects the country's ability to mobilize the

necessary forces for defense.

Studying the population structure by age, we find a sharp aging and a

significant decrease in the number of young people between the ages of 18

and 35, a segment from which the military personnel needed by the Army

and

other

structures

in

the

National

Defense

System

can

be

recruited,

in

peacetime, in crisis situations and in war.

Another serious problem is that of school and professional training,

the cited census demonstrating an increase in the number of school dropouts

and

those

with

only

secondary

school

education.

Given

the

current

and

future complexity of weapons systems and the need for digital skills, it is

difficult

for

them

to

be

operated

successfully

in

combat

by

the

human

resources available in the short and medium term.

I

think

we

should

reflect

more

on

the

populatio

n

involution

from

1989 to today:

•

Romania's population:

-

1989 = 22.800.000;

-

2015 = 21.462.000;

9

Popa Dan, „Primele rezultate ale Recensământului 2022: Populația României a scăzut la

19.053.815 locuitori”,

available at

https://hotnews.ro/primele

-

rezultate

-

ale

-

recensamntului

-

2022

-

populatia

-

romniei

-

a

-

scazut

-

la

-

19

-

053

-

815

-

locuitori

-

89103,

accessed on

september 1,

2026.

CHRONIC DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS IN ROMANIA AND

IT'S NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON THE

COUNTRY'S DEFENSE CAPACITY

16

-

2026 = 19.000.000.

•

Fit for military service citizens:

-

1989 = 6.840.000;

-

2015 = 6.438.000;

-

2026 = 5.000.000.

•

Peace time active military personnel:

-

1989 = 340.000;

-

2015 = 73.000;

-

2026 = 67.000 (on paper 75.000).

•

Population percentage:

-

1989 = 1,48%;

-

2015 = 0,34%;

-

2026 = 0,28%.

It

should

be

noted

that

the

Romanian

State

authorities

do

not

communicate

transparently

the

situation

of

human

resources

for

defense.

We note that there are notable differences compared to the data provided

semi

-

annually by the Analysis Group "GLOBAL FIRE POWER

-

2026"

10

.

Carefully

analyzing

the

figures

mentioned

above,

it

results

that

compared to 1989 we have a drastic reduction, 4.6 times of the peacetime

military and 10 times of the reservists mobilized in units that increase their

numbers

for

war

and

in

new

ones

that

come

into

being,

according

to

mobilization plans (if these still exist!?).

I

appreciate

that

political

and

military

decision

-

makers

should,

however,

understand

that

we

are

a

border

state

of

NATO

and

the

EU,

located, due to historical misfortune, in an area with many risks and military

and hybrid threats, and so far, NATO devices are moving "timidly" towards

the East, especially in the South

-

Eastern Flank and in the Black Sea Basin.

We

cannot

neglect

the

war

on

the

Romanian

border

triggered

by

Russia

against

Ukraine,

a

war

that

has

already

lasted

for

4.5

years,

with

direct effects on the territory of our country through daily attacks with aerial

and naval drones.

In this context, let us recall V.V. Putin's speec

h (over two hours

long) on

february 2,

2024, a speech in which he threatened the West and

Humanity

with

extinction,

through

the

use

of

the

huge

nuclear

arsenal.

11

.

10

„2026

Romania

Military

Strength”,

available

at

https://www.globalfirepower.com/

-

country

-

military

-

strength

-

detail.php?country_id=romania,

accessed on

september 1,

2026.

11

„Vladimir Putin, discurs în fața națiunii: De ce NATO nu înțelege că există pericolul unui

conflict nuclear? / Armata noastră a câștigat o experiență de luptă colosală / Rușii trebuie să

facă

mai

mult

sport:

Lăsați

băutura,

apucați

-

vă

de

ski!”,

available

at

https://

-

hotnews.ro/video

-

vladimir

-

putin

-

discurs

-

n

-

fata

-

natiunii

-

de

-

ce

-

nato

-

nu

-

ntelege

-

ca

-

exista

-

Lieutenant-general (ret) Associated Professor Constantin MINCU, Ph.D

17

I believe that the text of this speech, of unprecedented aggression,

from 1945 to 2024, should be studied and thoroughly analyzed by political

decision

-

makers

(completely

disconnected

from

reality)

and

Romanian

military leaders (excessively obedient to political bosses), those who have

been keeping the laws regarding national defense and security in drawers for

years and, instead of apologizing, keep attacking the military (!?). I believe

that those interested in the Defense of the Country (fewer and fewer or more

voiceless), from the political and military areas, know that in 1999

-

2000 it

was

estimated

that

the

Romanian

Army

should

have,

in

peace,

120,000

soldiers

(fighters,

not

political

clients

planted

in

abundance

in

the

central

structures of the M.Ap.N, who, in case of war, mostly confuse or simply run

away).

It

would

have

been

an

effort,

but

the

defense

and

security

of

the

Romanian State and its statehood costs (just like in other states).

The

historical

aggressiveness

of

some

of

Romania's

neighbors

(which will never disappear) requires a responsible analysis of the country's

ability to defend itself. But who should do it!?

As if by magic, without any public debate and without any analysis

of the risks and threats in our area, the decision

-

makers (!?) assessed that

75,000 military personnel and 15,000 civilian employees (a bit too many)

were sufficient, resulting in a total of 90,000 people. Instead of these figures

on paper, we now have only 67,000 military personnel, of which only about

30% are capable of combat actions specific to modern warfare. This Army

today cannot resist an atavistic aggressor, such as Russia.

As

I presented above, to these systemic shortcomings, we add the

fact that approximately six million Romanians (out of the 19,053,800) are

abroad, either long

-

term or permanently. At least 30% of them are fit for

military service in peace, crisis and war. But there is nowhere to get them

and as some publicly declare, they do not want to die to defend the fortunes

of the numerous corrupt people in Romania (!??).

3.

I believe that in the current context in Romania, it would be

necessary to present, from my point of view, some conclusions on the

current political

-

military crisis in the region, which imply concrete and

urgent actions on the part of politicians and military personnel now in

regulatory and leadership positions:

Current Romanian society,

as a whole, is shaken and disoriented

by chaotic policies without any vision (taken without expertise, on the knee)

in all areas of political, economic and social life;

•

Honest

citizens

(the

majority

in

the

country)

do

not

understand

why

the

political

-

economic

mafia

continues

to

pericolul

-

unui

-

conflict

-

nuclear

-

armata

-

noastra

-

a

-

cstigat

-

o

-

experienta

-

de

-

lupta

-

colosala

-

rusii

-

t

-

14607,

accessed on september 1,

2026.

CHRONIC DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS IN ROMANIA AND

IT'S NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON THE

COUNTRY'S DEFENSE CAPACITY

18

steal

unhindered,

with

new

cases

appearing

in

the

media

every day;

•

Romania, unfortunately,

due to harmful public policies and

widespread

robbery, lives on debt,

at

the expense of future

generations, who will no longer want to stay in the country.

The latest figures indicate a public debt of over 60% of the

Gross

Domestic

Product

(GDP)

12

,

without

seeing

anything

significant

in

public

investments

and

in

the

well

-

being

of

Romanians, who work honestly;

•

Deindustrialization,

carried

out

according

to

evil

plans,

including in terms of defense production units (weapons and

ammunition, various equipment), such as those in the field of

military

communications

and

logistics,

continued

at

an

alarming pace. Now we buy ammunition from Brazil, Serbia

and other countries. It is, in my opinion, a great mockery and

an act of betrayal of Romania's national interests;

•

Citizen

security

is

increasingly

threatened

by

all

kinds

of

clans of criminals, in cahoots with those who should, by law

and by their powers, eradicate them. These clans are involved

in

drug

trafficking

and

in

the

destruction

of

the

health

and

lives of young people (the phenomenon is completely out of

control, according to the plan of the "authorities");

•

Educa

tion

continues

to

be

the

scene

of

unfortunate

experiments, with a pronounced anti

-

national character (also

according to evil plans). The poor and inadequate training to

the

realities

of

today's

world

also

seriously

affects

the

military component, lacking qualified human resources, able

to face security challenges;

•

The health system

it is only

in

focus on paper, in

"plans"

and

strategies,

never

implemented,

although

significant

financial resources have been allocated in recent years.

•

The defence system

, as demonstrated, with solid arguments,

by

numerous

experienced

military

analysts,

in

numerous

studies, books and published articles, it is a "flower" that is

worn

only

on

December

1.

Otherwise,

everyone

with

their

own

business

and

interests,

especially

those

at

the

top

of

"politics" and "government", as long as it lasts;

12

„Datoria

publică

a

depășit

60%

din

PIB”,

available

at

https://www.digi24.ro/

stiri/

-

economie/finante

-

economie/datoria

-

publica

-

a

-

depasit

-

60

-

din

-

pib

-

guvernul

-

nu

-

mai

-

poate

-

majora

-

cheltuielile

-

totale

-

cu

-

salariile

-

si

-

asistenta

-

sociala

-

3912885,

accessed

on

september

2,

2026.

Lieutenant-general (ret) Associated Professor Constantin MINCU, Ph.D

19

•

And

because

the

chronic

demographic

crisis

from

Romania

is

the

subject

of

this

article,

I

must

note

that

the

current

Government

is

cutting

the

small

allowances

for

pregnant

women,

babies

and

children

from

poor

areas,

without

the

possibility

of

having

a

normal

life

and

without

minimal access to education;

•

Total

lack

of

policies

in

the

field

of

stopping

the

demographic

decline,

the

most

pronounced

in

Europe,

is

a

deliberate act of villainy and national treason. Who will pay

for this and when!?

There is much more to say

, but I will stop here.

In

conclusion

of

this

short

article,

I

would

like

the

country's

situation to change for the better, but, as the current "political class"

shows, the chances are extremely small.

I am convinced that my text will annoy many, but this is the truth, to

which

hundreds

of

other

activities

and

actions

against

Romania

and

its

ability to defend itself can be inventoried (in the unlikely event that those

currently "on the buttons" will read it).

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BORCEA Ș., „Rusia a pierdut aproximativ 1.475.270 de soldaţi în Ucraina

de

la

începutul

invaziei

sale

pe

scară

largă

din

24

februarie

2022,

a

raportat

Statul

Major

General

al

Forţelor

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