Colonel (ret.) Doru - Constantin TOCILĂ, Ph.D
order to test the same causal relationship within different political-
institutional contexts. External validity is reinforced through complementary
analytical replications, deliberately limited to the contemporary use of U.S.
SOF in the Sahel (2013–2022) and of Russian SOF in Ukraine (2014–2022),
in order to ensure analytical comparability and to avoid uncontrolled
expansion of the empirical field.
The analysis combines the correlation of empirical patterns with
theoretical propositions (pattern matching), progressive explanation building,
and process analysis, allowing for a causal reconstruction of the relationship
between tactical success and strategic outcome in terms of contextualized
analytical generalization rather than predictive inference. Within this
framework, the unit of analysis is deliberately defined as the use of Special
Operations Forces as instruments of realpolitik, rather than the individual
military operation, campaign, or conflict as a whole, in order to avoid
conflating tactical performance with strategic outcome. From a conceptual
standpoint, the study operates with a clear distinction between the tactical,
operational, and strategic levels of the use of force,1 situating the analysis at
the latter level, where convergence or disjunction between tactical success
and the political objectives pursued becomes manifest.
This delimitation requires a rigorous operational definition of
realpolitik, employed here not as a theory of international relations but as a
practical logic of political decision-making. Realpolitik denotes the manner
in which state decision-makers manage power and risk in a competitive
environment by prioritizing strategic interest and power relations,
independently of normative or ideological constraints.2 Operating at the level
of governing practice, realpolitik explains the use of available instruments as
a function of context, costs, and anticipated political effects, and is
characterized by the primacy of political objectives over means, instrumental
flexibility, and the management of domestic constraints that limit the
conversion of tactical success into durable strategic advantage. In relation to
offensive realism, realpolitik is treated as a compatible but distinct logic,
useful for explaining how systemic pressures are concretely managed by
decision-makers in specific historical contexts.
2.2. Theoretical Positioning and Case Selection
Within this study, the relationship between realpolitik and offensive
realism is treated as one of functional convergence rather than theoretical
equivalence: offensive realism explains the structural pressures that push
states toward power maximization in an anarchic international system, while
1 Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), 69-81.
2 Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 7th ed.
(New York: McGraw-Hill, 2006), 4-16.
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