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warmest. In the first nine months of the year, the global average temperature was
by 0.01°C lower than in 2016, the warmest year on record.
With global warming, summers are becoming increasingly hot, leading to
prolonged drought. Although agriculture, especially in the South, has always been
exposed to chronic water and soil moisture shortages, climate change has further
amplified these problems [8, 10]. Dry soils and the lack of water resources
available for irrigation, in many cases seriously affect agricultural businesses,
reducing productivity potential and production quality. In addition to the afore
mentioned, high temperatures can favor the emergence of new pests characteristic
of other geographical areas, the much more intense spread of pests and diseases,
directly affecting plant health.
Analysis of climate scenarios indicates a real probability that the following years
will be just as warm, and their influence on the global average temperature may be
even greater [17]. Drawing a similarity with the geographical area of Moldova, we
will mention that the air temperature in the summer months in 2022-2024
recorded values of 21.3-23.9 ºС, being by 2.1-2.7 ºС higher than the multiannual
average.
Possible climate scenarios for Moldova were developed using a set of General
Circulation Models (GCM), applied as a research tool for studying and simulating
climate [13, 16]. The results of experiments conducted using GCM and based on
different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, marked A2 and B2 in the Special
Report on Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios [14, 16 ] for three time periods
(2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099) serve as a benchmark for extrapolation.
According to both emission scenarios, average annual temperatures across the
entire territory of the Republic of Moldova will increase. By the end of the
century, temperature increases could average 4.1-5.4 °C. Depending on the GCM
experiment, these values range from 1°C to 6°C.
With increasing temperatures, annual precipitation is also projected to decrease,
especially under the A2 emissions scenario, which projects significant warming
for the Republic of Moldova in winter and between seasons. By the 2080s,
negative temperatures (reference -21°C) could decrease by 2 - 5.7°C, and average
spring and autumn temperatures could be higher by about 4 - 5°C. Over the course
of the current century, relatively more moderate warming is assumed to occur in
the summer months, by 1 - 3°C. Some increase in precipitation is also projected in
winter and spring, but the trends for summer and autumn are predominantly
negative, decreasing by about 20-30% by the 2080s. Overall, we can expect
warmer and wetter winters in the future, but warmer and drier conditions in
summer and autumn. By analogy, in Moldova we could have winters like in
France, Great Britain and summers like in Greece and Spain.